The Case Against Incrementalism
We've been taught that taking baby steps is the path to personal and professional growth, but history shows big swings are rewarded far more often in the long run.
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A generational debate has been waged in the world of innovation. While companies slowly iterate on their core product offerings, disruptors swing big. AI has been in the center of this conversation, both on Twitter, and also in the world of venture capital.
Some companies, such as Google and IBM, have been market leaders on AI for almost a decade. Hallmark products such as IBM Watson were seen as the earliest forms of AI and were predicted to be the ones to dominate the market for years.
And yet, a newcomer upstart, OpenAI, backed by Microsoft, was the one to open the eyes of the mass market to the unlimited potential of AI. A scrappy team built ChatGPT, a product that disrupted the artificial intelligence landscape for good, and now IBM and Google look like Kodak and Myspace, respectively.
The bias towards slight improvements over a long period of time is in itself a form of hedging. Small changes are rarely noticed, but can always be technically viewed as “improvements” and therefore above suspicion of being perceived as a failure.
But the truly generational innovators know that in order to make a dent in the universe, they need to take a big swing to shake up the market they aim to disrupt. If Steve Jobs had taken an incremental approach, he would have made a Walkman that could hold more CD’s. The once-in-a-lifetime products are polarizing when they first launch. They are beloved by the ardent supporters, but typically mocked by the cynics.
They can initially be viewed as a “swing for the fences” or a “moonshot” that will never gain mass-market adoption. They’re too risky, too ambitious, and unlikely to find success.
As for the companies that champion incremental change, they’ll never find breakaway success, but they’ll also never face catastrophic failure. There is no virtue in being lukewarm. Not innovative enough to make a dent. Not risky enough to ever fail.
In order to fully transcend, you must become comfortable with failing in public.
While Elon was recently mocked online for SpaceX’s largest rocket exploding just minutes into launch, I viewed this catastrophe as something far different. It was a big swing, with high stakes, in public. As much as I can view some of Elon’s antics with disdain, his ability to withstand public scrutiny for the sake of innovation is admirable.
Too often, we’re so scared of failing in public that we convince ourselves that tiny, incremental steps forward in private are somehow getting us closer to greatness.
That’s simply not the case.
Let’s look at the world of AI, where releasing a product to the public immediately opens you up to scrutiny. Bad faith actors will test the limits of the AI, often trying to embarrass the founders by exposing its weaknesses, both from a technical and ethical standpoint. The older players in the space may protect themselves from scrutiny by working on their projects in “research capacities”. Nothing can be scrutinized because nothing has been put on display.
CONSOLIDATE YOUR GAINS
Burn The Boats, Chapter 4
Forgoing the incremental path sounds counterintuitive, especially when we’re scared. We imagine we should take things slowly, make small changes, and eventually it will lead to meaningful progress.
But all that does is extend our journey and give us more and more opportunity to turn back.
When I’m evaluating my own plans in life, whether it’s building a new venture, potentially investing in a company, or speaking with a prospective founder, I always double check whether I’m taking the incremental way out.
Consider this exercise when planning the next level-up in your life:
Write out the bullets of what needs to happen in the next 3-5 years of this plan in order for it to be successful. Be as detailed as possible. Every excruciating detail. This detail will quiet your overanxious brain, which is convinced you’re skipping a step or forgetting about a potential blindspot.
Now, shrink the timeline. Pretend you only had 1 year to complete this plan. While it may feel impossible, just allow yourself to play out the exercise. Which of the bullets gets cut out? What is forced to stay on? Are the steps that were removed feel critical to the mission or were they “nice-to-haves” (ex. Do you really need 3 months of product testing or can you do a sprint in 3 weeks?)
Commit to the sprint, without sacrificing quality. There’s a difference between rushing an essential operation and wasting time for the sake of false rigor. Taking 5 years to do something doesn’t actually make it stronger. Sometimes, it can actually deplete your resources and your commitment to the mission may wane.
If you’re not embarrassed by your first release, you’ve launched too late.
Reid Hoffman, founder of LinkedIn
LIGHTING THE MATCH
Each week, I’ll be sharing some of the amazing messages I’ve received from fellow Boat Burners who have decided to stop hesitating and go all in on their life’s true purpose. To be featured on Lighting the Match, DM me on Instagram or LinkedIn!
In September of 2022, a Burn the Boats reader decided it was her time to shine, to do something different, and she jumped from food service and retail to the world of banking. It is an entirely different world but has become the source of so much happiness for her. Recently, she shared a business plan she had written for her cornerstone class with a business banker. He immediately got a spark in his eyes and has been encouraging her every day to go forward with the plan. She plans on going all-in on her new venture and hasn’t turned back.
“So many of the objections I have told myself over the last few months were ones Matt pointed out in Burn The Boats and the encouragement behind them has really struck a chord. I will take mine and my mother's dream and make it a reality. No matter how long it takes, or how many obstacles present themselves.”
I totally love this piece and have to remind folks, and political bodies, that urgency can transmute broken patterns and produce potentially abundant adaptations
The best case against the incremental theory is time the God has allotted us. Spend every day swinging for the fences. I may not have much longer, and I may not see my dream shot over the left field fence, but you can bet your ass if I don't put it out of the park, it's going to be a long fly ball that makes the warning track, and the rest of my team can pick up my absence.
Also, I have used Watson, and ChatGPT is a far superior product, and it is unfortunate that MSFT is gobbling them up.
So, fellow Burner's Swing for the fences every time, you never know when you will get your last opportunity to be at Homeplate. This book made me face my biggest competitor, ME... and it has taught me that cockroaches and rats, living with you at a young age, can either kill you or inspire you. It's your choice to make.